Estimated health impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of taxation on unhealthy packaged foods in the Philippines: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: In 2018, the Philippines implemented a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages. A broader tax on unhealthy foods is being considered. We aimed to estimate the effect of a tax on unhealthy packaged foods. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a multiple-cohort, proportional multistate life table model to estimate the effect of a 20% tax on packaged foods exceeding WHO thresholds for sodium or sugar, excluding beverages already taxed. Using nationally representative nutrition, sales, and Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study data, we projected changes in sodium and sugar intake and related health outcomes (cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes) and economic outcomes (health-care costs, tax revenue, and implementation costs) over 20 years, comparing Filipino adults aged…