Modeling and Forecasting Passenger Demand for a New Domestic Airport with Limited Data

Because adequate information on people's travel behavior is often unavailable in developing countries, demand modeling for a new airport is difficult. This study presents a simple modeling approach that uses limited aggregate information about a country to generate a forecast for passenger patronage in a new airport. The model uses aggregate time-series information on the national level and patronage at other airports to develop a gravity-type demand model for the country. The demand model incorporates the possible competition with a substitute mode, which is often the case for air travel demand in a small country. Demand for the specific new airport is then calibrated by using the parameters from this demand model and a small passenger survey. This modeling approach…