<scp>CMIP6‐</scp>projected changes in drought over Xinjiang, Northwest China

Abstract Xinjiang, located in Northwest China, is a typical arid and semiarid region. In this region, frequent droughts have caused great losses in agricultural production and social economy. Therefore, changes in drought over Xinjiang have attracted considerable attention. This study projects the drought changes over Xinjiang during the 21st century, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is applied to measure drought variation. After quantitatively evaluating the performance of 25 CMIP6 models in annual and seasonal precipitation and evapotranspiration in Xinjiang during 1995–2014, we select 13 preferred models for projection. The projection results show significant decreasing trends in annual SPEI during 2021–2100 in Xinjiang,…