Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Air Pollutants Based on Prophet Forecasting Model in Jiangsu Province, China

Due to recent developments in the global economy, transportation, and industrialization, air pollution is one of main environmental issues in the 21st century. The current study aimed to predict both short-term and long-term air pollution in Jiangsu Province, China, based on the Prophet forecasting model (PFM). We collected data from 72 air quality monitoring stations to forecast six air pollutants: PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , NO 2 , CO, and O 3 . To determine the accuracy of the model and to compare its results with predicted and actual values, we used the correlation coefficient (R), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results show that PFM predicted…