Using DHIS2 routine data for health system preparedness in resource-limited settings: A Bayesian predictive approach in Bangladesh

Health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Bangladesh face persistent challenges in delivering timely and equitable care, often exacerbated by poor planning and inefficient resource allocation. Forecasting service utilization using routine health data can support more responsive and data-driven health system planning, yet such approaches remain under utilized in Bangladesh. By analyzing service utilization trends and projecting future service volume at national and regional levels, we aim to improve region-specific health planning. This can promote more efficient and equitable service provision. We analyzed monthly routine health service data reported into the District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) platform between January 2021 and March 2025 in Bangladesh. We examined key indicators across maternal, newborn, child and hospital-based services. Bayesian…