An ocean-only framework for correcting future CMIP oceanic projections from their present-day biases

This paper proposes an ocean-only dynamical framework to mitigate the influence presentday biases of Earth System Models (ESMs) on future regional ocean physical and biogeochemical projections. Initially, a control experiment is conducted using fluxes derived from an atmospheric reanalysis, excluding climate change signals. Subsequently, a climate change simulation is performed by adding historical and future fluxes perturbations from a selected ESM to these background realistic fluxes. Since part of the ESM surface heat fluxes perturbation is a direct feedback to the sea surface temperature (SST) warming, these fluxes perturbations are split into SST-dependent and independent components. The climate change simulation is forced by the independent component, while the SST-dependent component is modeled online as an SST relaxation to the control…