Temperature and precipitation projections over Bangladesh and the upstream Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna systems

South Asia is a region of complex atmospheric dynamics and therefore changes resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with existing vulnerability to extreme weather events such as flooding, could put the region at particular risk from climate change. However, current climate projections for the region show a range of uncertainty, particularly in terms of changes in the variability and extremes of precipitation. Focusing on Bangladesh and the region encompassing parts of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins, we aim to explore and quantify climate model uncertainty in climate change projections for the 21(st) century. We use results from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble of projections from a global climate model which have been used to drive a higher…