Simulations of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones in a regional convection-permitting atmosphere–ocean coupled model

Abstract. Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Bay of Bengal can be extremely destructive when they make landfall in India and Bangladesh. Accurate prediction of their track and intensity is essential for disaster management. This study evaluates simulations of Bay of Bengal TCs using a regional convection-permitting atmosphere-ocean coupled model. The Met Office Unified Model atmosphere-only configuration (4.4 km horizontal grid spacing) is compared with a configuration coupled to a three-dimensional dynamical ocean model (2.2 km horizontal grid spacing). Simulations of six TCs from 2016–2019 show that both configurations produce accurate TC tracks for lead times of up to 6 days before landfall. Both configurations underestimate high wind speeds and high rain rates, and overestimate low wind speeds and low rain…