Developing a hybrid modeling and multivariate analysis framework for storm surge and runoff interactions in urban coastal flooding

The formation of urban coastal flooding is mainly ruled by the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge. This study aims to advance the understanding of coastal urban flood mechanism by developing an integrated modeling and multivariate analysis framework, which involves a hydrologic model (Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)), as the core model, coupled with a coastal hydrodynamic model (Delft3D). The uncertainty associated with the flood depth prediction by integrated models is analyzed using the multivariate Gaussian Copula. The performance of the integrated modeling framework is evaluated for the Chittagong City of Bangladesh, which has experienced extreme and frequent coastal urban floods. Results from modeling indicate that changes in the tidal phase of coastal urban flooding alter the flood’s duration and…