Forecasting Precipitation Using a Markov Chain Model in the Coastal Region in Bangladesh

This work explores the detailed study of Bangladeshi precipitation patterns, with a particular emphasis on modeling annual rainfall changes in six coastal cities using Markov chains. To create a robust Markov chain model with four distinct precipitation states and provide insight into the transition probabilities between these states, the study integrates historical rainfall data spanning nearly three decades (1994–2023). The stationary test statistic (χ²) was computed for a selected number of coastal stations, and transition probabilities between distinct rainfall states were predicted using this historical data. The findings reveal that the observed values of the test statistic, χ², are significant for all coastal stations, indicating a reliable model fit. These results underscore the importance of understanding the temporal evolution of…