Theories of Software Reliability: How Good Are They and How Can They Be Improved?

An examination of the assumptions used in early bug-counting models of software reliability shows them to be deficient. Suggestions are made to improve modeling assumptions and examples are given of mathematical implementations. Model verification via real-life data is discussed and minimum requirements are presented. An example shows how these requirements may be satisfied in practice. It is suggested that current theories are only the first step along what threatens to be a long road.