A Simple Nomogram for Predicting Failure of Non-Invasive Respiratory Therapies in Adults with COVID-19: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

Background: Non-invasive respiratory therapies (NIRTs) (high flow nasal cannula and non-invasive ventilation) are widely used in COVID-19 patients who developed acute respiratory failure. However, use of these therapies may delay initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation in some patients and hence worsen their outcome. This study set out to identify early predictors of NIRT failure and to develop a simple-to-use nomogram and an online calculator identifying patients at high risk of NIRT failure. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 652 COVID-19 patients with ARF who received NIRTs, was used to develop early predictors of NIRT failure, defined as subsequent need for invasive mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days after ICU admission. Multivariate logistic analysis was used to develop the nomogram and…