A Storm Surge Prediction Model for the Northern Bay of Bengal with Application to the Cyclone Disaster in April 1991

A numerical model for simulating and predicting tides and storm surges in regions that include areas of open sea combined with estuarine channels and intertidal banks is described. The model makes use of modified depth-averaged equations with a numerical scheme in which the solution of 1D equations for narrow channels, 2D equations for the open sea, and an approach to modeling inundation are combined within a unified framework. This simplifies the construction of realistic models for complex coastal areas and deltas. The model is applied to the northern shelf of the Bay of Bengal and the Ganges Delta, including the coast of Bangladesh devastated by a cyclone surge in April 1991 in which about 140 000 people died. Hindcast and…