Dynamics of a morbillivirus at the domestic–wildlife interface: Canine distemper virus in domestic dogs and lions

Morbilliviruses cause many diseases of medical and veterinary importance, and although some (e.g., measles and rinderpest) have been controlled successfully, others, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), are a growing concern. A propensity for host-switching has resulted in CDV emergence in new species, including endangered wildlife, posing challenges for controlling disease in multispecies communities. CDV is typically associated with domestic dogs, but little is known about its maintenance and transmission in species-rich areas or about the potential role of domestic dog vaccination as a means of reducing disease threats to wildlife. We address these questions by analyzing a long-term serological dataset of CDV in lions and domestic dogs from Tanzania's Serengeti ecosystem. Using a Bayesian state-space model, we show that…