Seasonality, Timing, and Climate Drivers of Influenza Activity Worldwide

BACKGROUND: Although influenza is a vaccine-preventable disease that annually causes substantial disease burden, data on virus activity in tropical countries are limited. We analyzed publicly available influenza data to better understand the global circulation of influenza viruses. METHOD: We reviewed open-source, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data. For each country, we abstracted data on the percentage of samples testing positive for influenza each epidemiologic week from the annual number of samples testing positive for influenza. The start of influenza season was defined as the first week when the proportion of samples that tested positive remained above the annual mean. We assessed the relationship between percentage of samples testing positive and mean monthly temperature with use of regression models. FINDINGS: We identified data…