Predicted and observed cardiovascular disease in South Asians: application of FINRISK, Framingham and SCORE models to Newcastle Heart Project data

BACKGROUND: South Asian populations in the United Kingdom have a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Risk prediction models appear to be inaccurate in South Asians. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictive capacity of the FINRISK, Framingham (1991) and SCORE risk prediction models in the Newcastle Heart Project population (n = 1301). METHODS: Mortality data for England and Wales were used to define the expected ranking of CVD risk by country of birth. CVD mortality in the Newcastle Heart Project sample was examined. Risk factor measures were obtained from the Newcastle Heart Project, where 90 percent of South Asians were born in the Indian Subcontinent. The predicted outcomes for FINRISK were acute myocardial infarction and CHD mortality, for Framingham CHD…