Phase Change from Snowfall to Rainfall in the Nepal Himalaya: Observed Shifts, Hydrological Impacts and Implications for Monsoon-driven Mega-geo-disasters

Climate change is altering precipitation regimes across monsoon-influenced mountain regions, shifting precipitation phase from snowfall to rainfall and modifying runoff timing and extremes. Such phase changes amplify risks of flash floods, landslides, and other mega-geo-disasters during intense monsoon events by removing the buffering effect of snow and increasing instantaneous runoff. This study, part of the APN Project CRRP2024-06MY-Pradhananga (APN 2025), “Enhancing Climate Resilience in South Asia and China: Predicting Precipitation Shifts and Their Impacts for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resource Security”, employs an interdisciplinary and participatory approach to analyze precipitation shifts and their implications. By integrating high-resolution climate data, remote sensing, modeling, and stakeholder engagement, we assess spatiotemporal precipitation trends and phase transitions across Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and…