The Causes of Stalling Fertility Transitions

An examination of fertility trends in countries with multiple DHS surveys found that in the 1990s fertility stalled in midtransition in seven countries: Bangladesh, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Peru, and Turkey. In each of these countries fertility was high (more than six births per woman) in the 1950s and declined to fewer than five births per woman in the early or mid-1990s, before stalling. The level of stalling varied from 4.7 births per woman in Kenya to 2.5 births per woman in Turkey. An analysis of trends in the determinants of fertility revealed a systematic pattern of leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the demand for contraception, and number of wanted births.…