DO TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH DEPEND ON SEASONALITY IN HUMIDITY? A SARIMA AND SANCOVA APPROACH

Humidity is one of the most significant climate factors influencing destination decisions and the distribution pattern of vacationers during various seasons. This variable influences the benefit of day-to-day travel industry activities and keeps up the destination competitiveness. In this paper, the univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model has been applied to conjecture month-to-month humidity for Bangladesh mainstream tourist spots up to the year 2025. Later, the influence of humidity on tourist arrival that contributes to the national economy was also assessed using the Seasonal Analysis of Covariance (SANCOVA) model. Our findings indicate that the Bangladesh tourism industry is more vulnerable to seasonal variation, and this seasonality has a 72% effect on tourist arrival and a 58% effect on…