Spatial and temporal trends in <scp>HIV</scp> / <scp>AIDS</scp> burden among South Asian countries from 1990 to 2021: A systematic examination of the Global Burden of Disease study 2021

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS remains a significant public health concern in South Asia, and trends in disease burden vary across the region. This study analyzed spatial and temporal trends in HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, focusing on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of GBD 2021 data, applying Joinpoint regression and auto-regressive integrated moving average models to assess trends in HIV/AIDS burden across South Asian countries. We calculated metrics such as average annual percentage change (AAPC), and estimated APC (EAPC) to evaluate temporal trends. RESULTS: We found significant variations in HIV/AIDS trends across South Asia. India had the highest burden, with a sharp increase…