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Theo Vos, Ryan M Barber, Brad Bell, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa et al.

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Giacomo Bellani, John G. Laffey, Tài Pham, Eddy Fan et al.

IMPORTANCE: Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) incidence and outcome of ARDS and to assess clinician recognition, ventilation management, and use of adjuncts-for example prone positioning-in routine clinical practice for patients fulfilling the ARDS Berlin Definition. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients undergoing invasive or noninvasive ventilation, conducted during 4 consecutive weeks in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across 5 continents. EXPOSURES: Acute respiratory distress syndrome. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was ICU incidence of ARDS. Secondary outcomes included assessment of clinician recognition of ARDS, the application of ventilatory management, the use of adjunctive interventions in routine clinical practice, and clinical outcomes from ARDS. RESULTS: Of 29,144 patients admitted to participating ICUs, 3022 (10.4%) fulfilled ARDS criteria. Of these, 2377 patients developed ARDS in the first 48 hours and whose respiratory failure was managed with invasive mechanical ventilation. The period prevalence of mild ARDS was 30.0% (95% CI, 28.2%-31.9%); of moderate ARDS, 46.6% (95% CI, 44.5%-48.6%); and of severe ARDS, 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%). ARDS represented 0.42 cases per ICU bed over 4 weeks and represented 10.4% (95% CI, 10.0%-10.7%) of ICU admissions and 23.4% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical recognition of ARDS ranged from 51.3% (95% CI, 47.5%-55.0%) in mild to 78.5% (95% CI, 74.8%-81.8%) in severe ARDS. Less than two-thirds of patients with ARDS received a tidal volume 8 of mL/kg or less of predicted body weight. Plateau pressure was measured in 40.1% (95% CI, 38.2-42.1), whereas 82.6% (95% CI, 81.0%-84.1%) received a positive end-expository pressure (PEEP) of less than 12 cm H2O. Prone positioning was used in 16.3% (95% CI, 13.7%-19.2%) of patients with severe ARDS. Clinician recognition of ARDS was associated with higher PEEP, greater use of neuromuscular blockade, and prone positioning. Hospital mortality was 34.9% (95% CI, 31.4%-38.5%) for those with mild, 40.3% (95% CI, 37.4%-43.3%) for those with moderate, and 46.1% (95% CI, 41.9%-50.4%) for those with severe ARDS. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among ICUs in 50 countries, the period prevalence of ARDS was 10.4% of ICU admissions. This syndrome appeared to be underrecognized and undertreated and associated with a high mortality rate. These findings indicate the potential for improvement in the management of patients with ARDS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02010073.

Jorge Alvar, Iván Darío Vélez, Caryn Bern, Mercè Herrero et al.

As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see 'Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101'). Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North Sudan, Costa Rica and Peru, together account for 70 to 75% of global estimated CL incidence. Mortality data were extremely sparse and generally represent hospital-based deaths only. Using an overall case-fatality rate of 10%, we reach a tentative estimate of 20,000 to 40,000 leishmaniasis deaths per year. Although the information is very poor in a number of countries, this is the first in-depth exercise to better estimate the real impact of leishmaniasis. These data should help to define control strategies and reinforce leishmaniasis advocacy.

Yang Dong, Lin Hao, Zhenduo Shi, Gang Wang et al.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of tadalafil monotherapy for lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (LUTS/BPH). METHODS: A comprehensive search was done to identify randomized controlled trials comparing the efficacy and safety of tadalafil for LUTS/BPH with placebos. Meta-analytical techniques were applied to evaluate the differences in the study results. RESULTS: Eight studies were identified and analyzed. Compared with placebo, tadalafil was associated with significant improvements in the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) (mean difference = -2.19, p < 0.00001) and the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF) score (mean difference = +4.66, p < 0.00001), despite the concomitant presence of erectile dysfunction. Significant differences were also observed in the IPSS irritative and obstructive subscores, IPSS quality of life index and BPH impact index. After pooling four doses (2.5, 5, 10 and 20 mg), tadalafil failed to produce a significant outcome in maximal urinary flow rate (Qmax) (mean difference = +0.26 ml/s, p = 0.14), but 5 mg of tadalafil significantly improved Qmax (mean difference = +0.63 ml/s, p = 0.04). No significant difference was detected in the incidence of serious adverse events (risk ratio = 1.00, p = 1.00) after tadalafil treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Tadalafil showed good efficacy and safety for improving LUTS and erectile dysfunction in men with BPH, and 5 mg of tadalafil significantly improved Qmax.

Bin Zhou, Rodrigo M. Carrillo‐Larco, Goodarz Danaei, Leanne M Riley et al.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. METHODS: We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. FINDINGS: The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. INTERPRETATION: Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. FUNDING: WHO.

Saifon Chawanpaiboon, Joshua P. Vogel, Ann‐Beth Moller, Pisake Lumbiganon et al.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years worldwide. Although preterm survival rates have increased in high-income countries, preterm newborns still die because of a lack of adequate newborn care in many low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national rates of preterm birth in 2014, with trends over time for some selected countries. METHODS: We systematically searched for data on preterm birth for 194 WHO Member States from 1990 to 2014 in databases of national civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS). We also searched for population-representative surveys and research studies for countries with no or limited CRVS data. For 38 countries with high-quality data for preterm births in 2014, data are reported directly. For countries with at least three data points between 1990 and 2014, we used a linear mixed regression model to estimate preterm birth rates. We also calculated regional and global estimates of preterm birth for 2014. FINDINGS: We identified 1241 data points across 107 countries. The estimated global preterm birth rate for 2014 was 10·6% (uncertainty interval 9·0-12·0), equating to an estimated 14·84 million (12·65 million-16·73 million) live preterm births in 2014. 12· 0 million (81·1%) of these preterm births occurred in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Regional preterm birth rates for 2014 ranged from 13·4% (6·3-30·9) in North Africa to 8·7% (6·3-13·3) in Europe. India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia accounted for 57·9 million (41×4%) of 139·9 million livebirths and 6·6 million (44×6%) of preterm births globally in 2014. Of the 38 countries with high-quality data, preterm birth rates have increased since 2000 in 26 countries and decreased in 12 countries. Globally, we estimated that the preterm birth rate was 9×8% (8×3-10×9) in 2000, and 10×6% (9×0-12×0) in 2014. INTERPRETATION: Preterm birth remains a crucial issue in child mortality and improving quality of maternal and newborn care. To better understand the epidemiology of preterm birth, the quality and volume of data needs to be improved, including standardisation of definitions, measurement, and reporting. FUNDING: WHO and the March of Dimes.

Ying‐Ying Zheng, Yi‐Tong Ma, Jinying Zhang, Xiang Xie

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infects host cells through ACE2 receptors, leading to coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related pneumonia, while also causing acute myocardial injury and chronic damage to the cardiovascular system. Therefore, particular attention should be given to cardiovascular protection during treatment for COVID-19.

Silvia de Sanjosé, Wim Quint, Laia Alemany, D.T. Geraets et al.

Background Knowledge about the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in invasive cervical cancer is crucial to guide the introduction of prophylactic vaccines. We aimed to provide novel and comprehensive data about the worldwide genotype distribution in patients with invasive cervical cancer. Methods Paraffin-embedded samples of histologically confirmed cases of invasive cervical cancer were collected from 38 countries in Europe, North America, central South America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. Inclusion criteria were a pathological confirmation of a primary invasive cervical cancer of epithelial origin in the tissue sample selected for analysis of HPV DNA, and information about the year of diagnosis. HPV detection was done by use of PCR with SPF-10 broad-spectrum primers followed by DNA enzyme immunoassay and genotyping with a reverse hybridisation line probe assay. Sequence analysis was done to characterise HPV-positive samples with unknown HPV types. Data analyses included algorithms of multiple infections to estimate type-specific relative contributions. Findings 22,661 paraffin-embedded samples were obtained from 14,249 women. 10,575 cases of invasive cervical cancer were included in the study, and 8977 (85%) of these were positive for HPV DNA. The most common HPV types were 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, and 58 with a combined worldwide relative contribution of 8196 of 8977 (91%, 95% CI 90-92). HPV types 16 and 18 were detected in 6357 of 8977 of cases (71%, 70-72) of invasive cervical cancer. HPV types 16, 18, and 45 were detected in 443 of 470 cases (94%, 92-96) of cervical adenocarcinomas. Unknown HPV types that were identified with sequence analysis were 26, 30, 61, 67, 69, 82, and 91 in 103 (1%) of 8977 cases of invasive cervical cancer. Women with invasive cervical cancers related to HPV types 16, 18, or 45 presented at a younger mean age than did those with other HPV types (50·0 years [49·6-50·4], 48·2 years [47·3-49·2], 46·8 years [46·6-48·1], and 55·5 years [54·9-56·1], respectively). Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the largest assessment of HPV genotypes to date. HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, and 58 should be given priority when the cross-protective effects of current vaccines are assessed, and for formulation of recommendations for the use of second-generation polyvalent HPV vaccines. Our results also suggest that type-specific high-risk HPV-DNA-based screening tests and protocols should focus on HPV types 16, 18, and 45.

Christina Fitzmaurice, Degu Abate, Naghmeh Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar et al.

<h3>Importance</h3> Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. <h3>Objective</h3> To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. <h3>Findings</h3> In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Daniel J. Klionsky, Amal Kamal Abdel‐Aziz, Sara Abdelfatah, Mahmoud Abdellatif et al.

autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field.

Shiv Kumar Sarin, Manoj Kumar, George Lau, Zaigham Abbas et al.

Worldwide, some 240 million people have chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), with the highest rates of infection in Africa and Asia. Our understanding of the natural history of HBV infection and the potential for therapy of the resultant disease is continuously improving. New data have become available since the previous APASL guidelines for management of HBV infection were published in 2012. The objective of this manuscript is to update the recommendations for the optimal management of chronic HBV infection. The 2015 guidelines were developed by a panel of Asian experts chosen by the APASL. The clinical practice guidelines are based on evidence from existing publications or, if evidence was unavailable, on the experts' personal experience and opinion after deliberations. Manuscripts and abstracts of important meetings published through January 2015 have been evaluated. This guideline covers the full spectrum of care of patients infected with hepatitis B, including new terminology, natural history, screening, vaccination, counseling, diagnosis, assessment of the stage of liver disease, the indications, timing, choice and duration of single or combination of antiviral drugs, screening for HCC, management in special situations like childhood, pregnancy, coinfections, renal impairment and pre- and post-liver transplant, and policy guidelines. However, areas of uncertainty still exist, and clinicians, patients, and public health authorities must therefore continue to make choices on the basis of the evolving evidence. The final clinical practice guidelines and recommendations are presented here, along with the relevant background information.

Ting Shi, David McAllister, Katherine L. O’Brien, Eric A. F. Simões et al.

BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Elizabeth A. Ashley, Mehul Dhorda, Rick M. Fairhurst, Chanaki Amaratunga et al.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in Southeast Asia and now poses a threat to the control and elimination of malaria. Mapping the geographic extent of resistance is essential for planning containment and elimination strategies. METHODS: Between May 2011 and April 2013, we enrolled 1241 adults and children with acute, uncomplicated falciparum malaria in an open-label trial at 15 sites in 10 countries (7 in Asia and 3 in Africa). Patients received artesunate, administered orally at a daily dose of either 2 mg per kilogram of body weight per day or 4 mg per kilogram, for 3 days, followed by a standard 3-day course of artemisinin-based combination therapy. Parasite counts in peripheral-blood samples were measured every 6 hours, and the parasite clearance half-lives were determined. RESULTS: The median parasite clearance half-lives ranged from 1.9 hours in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 7.0 hours at the Thailand-Cambodia border. Slowly clearing infections (parasite clearance half-life >5 hours), strongly associated with single point mutations in the "propeller" region of the P. falciparum kelch protein gene on chromosome 13 (kelch13), were detected throughout mainland Southeast Asia from southern Vietnam to central Myanmar. The incidence of pretreatment and post-treatment gametocytemia was higher among patients with slow parasite clearance, suggesting greater potential for transmission. In western Cambodia, where artemisinin-based combination therapies are failing, the 6-day course of antimalarial therapy was associated with a cure rate of 97.7% (95% confidence interval, 90.9 to 99.4) at 42 days. CONCLUSIONS: Artemisinin resistance to P. falciparum, which is now prevalent across mainland Southeast Asia, is associated with mutations in kelch13. Prolonged courses of artemisinin-based combination therapies are currently efficacious in areas where standard 3-day treatments are failing. (Funded by the U.K. Department of International Development and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01350856.).

Ami D. Sperber, Shrikant I. Bangdiwala, Douglas A. Drossman, Uday C. Ghoshal et al.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Although functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGIDs), now called disorders of gut-brain interaction, have major economic effects on healthcare systems and adversely affect quality of life, little is known about their global prevalence and distribution. We investigated the prevalence of and factors associated with 22 FGIDs, in 33 countries on 6 continents. METHODS Data were collected via the internet in 24 countries, personal interviews in 7 countries, and both in 2 countries, using the Rome IV diagnostic questionnaire, Rome III irritable bowel syndrome questions, and 80 items to identify variables associated with FGIDs. Data collection methods differed for internet and household groups, so data analyses were conducted and reported separately. RESULTS Among the 73,076 adult respondents (49.5% women), diagnostic criteria were met for at least 1 FGID by 40.7% persons who completed the internet surveys (95% CI, 40.2-41.1) and 20.9% of persons who completed the household surveys. FGIDs were more prevalent among women than men, based on responses to the internet survey (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.6-1.7) and household survey (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.5). FGIDs were associated with lower quality of life and more frequent doctor visits. Proportions of subjects with irritable bowel syndrome were lower when the Rome IV criteria were used, compared with the Rome III criteria, in the internet survey (4.1% vs 10.1%) and household survey (1.5% vs 3.5%). CONCLUSIONS In a large-scale multi-national study, we found that more than 40% of persons worldwide have FGIDs, which affect quality of life and healthcare use. Although the absolute prevalence was higher among internet respondents, similar trends and relative distributions were found in people who completed internet vs personal interviews.

Salim Yusuf, Philip Joseph, Sumathy Rangarajan, Shofiqul Islam et al.

Background: Global estimates of the impact of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methodology to prospectively evaluate the impact of modifiable risk factors on CVD and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) at different economic levels. Methods: In a multi-national, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and major CVD in 155,722 community-dwelling participants (ages 35–70 years at enrollment) from 21 high-, middle-, or low-income countries (HIC, MIC or LIC) followed for a median of 9·5 years. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios, and population attributable fractions (PAFs) for CVD and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (i.e. tobacco, alcohol, diet, physical activity and sodium intake), metabolic factors (i.e. lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (i.e. education, symptoms of depression), strength, household (solid fuel for cooking) and ambient PM 2·5 air pollution. Findings: Mean age of the population was 50·2 years of age, 58·3% were female, 52·6% were from urban areas, 11·1% from HIC, 65·9% from MIC, and 23·0% from LIC. Over 70% of CVD cases and deaths in the overall cohort were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for CVD (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12.5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for CVD (although different statistical methods were used for this analysis). In MIC and LIC, the importance of household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength were larger compared with HIC. Interpretation: The majority of CVD cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global impacts (e.g. hypertension, education), others (e.g. household air pollution, poor diet) vary by a country’s economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting CVD and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries.

Muhammad E. H. Chowdhury, Tawsifur Rahman, Amith Khandakar, Rashid Mazhar et al.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a pandemic disease, which has already caused thousands of causalities and infected several millions of people worldwide. Any technological tool enabling rapid screening of the COVID-19 infection with high accuracy can be crucially helpful to the healthcare professionals. The main clinical tool currently in use for the diagnosis of COVID-19 is the Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), which is expensive, less-sensitive and requires specialized medical personnel. X-ray imaging is an easily accessible tool that can be an excellent alternative in the COVID-19 diagnosis. This research was taken to investigate the utility of artificial intelligence (AI) in the rapid and accurate detection of COVID-19 from chest X-ray images. The aim of this paper is to propose a robust technique for automatic detection of COVID-19 pneumonia from digital chest X-ray images applying pre-trained deep-learning algorithms while maximizing the detection accuracy. A public database was created by the authors combining several public databases and also by collecting images from recently published articles. The database contains a mixture of 423 COVID-19, 1485 viral pneumonia, and 1579 normal chest X-ray images. Transfer learning technique was used with the help of image augmentation to train and validate several pre-trained deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The networks were trained to classify two different schemes: i) normal and COVID-19 pneumonia; ii) normal, viral and COVID-19 pneumonia with and without image augmentation. The classification accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity for both the schemes were 99.7%, 99.7%, 99.7% and 99.55% and 97.9%, 97.95%, 97.9%, and 98.8%, respectively. The high accuracy of this computer-aided diagnostic tool can significantly improve the speed and accuracy of COVID-19 diagnosis. This would be extremely useful in this pandemic where disease burden and need for preventive measures are at odds with available resources.

Darryl P. Leong, Koon Teo, Sumathy Rangarajan, Patricio López‐Jaramillo et al.

BACKGROUND Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries. METHODS The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (IQR 2.9-5.1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally. FINDINGS Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142,861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139,691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years (IQR 2.9-5.1), 3379 (2%) of 139,691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength and each outcome, with the exceptions of cancer and hospital admission due to respiratory illness, was similar across country-income strata. Grip strength was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg reduction in grip strength 1.16, 95% CI 1.13-1.20; p<0.0001), cardiovascular mortality (1.17, 1.11-1.24; p<0.0001), non-cardiovascular mortality (1.17, 1.12-1.21; p<0.0001), myocardial infarction (1.07, 1.02-1.11; p=0.002), and stroke (1.09, 1.05-1.15; p<0.0001). Grip strength was a stronger predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than systolic blood pressure. We found no significant association between grip strength and incident diabetes, risk of hospital admission for pneumonia or COPD, injury from fall, or fracture. In high-income countries, the risk of cancer and grip strength were positively associated (0.916, 0.880-0.953; p<0.0001), but this association was not found in middle-income and low-income countries. INTERPRETATION This study suggests that measurement of grip strength is a simple, inexpensive risk-stratifying method for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify determinants of muscular strength and to test whether improvement in strength reduces mortality and cardiovascular disease. FUNDING Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Michael S. Kramer, Ritsuko Kakuma

BACKGROUND: Although the health benefits of breastfeeding are widely acknowledged, opinions and recommendations are strongly divided on the optimal duration of exclusive breastfeeding. Since 2001, the World Health Organization has recommended exclusive breastfeeding for six months. Much of the recent debate in developed countries has centred on the micronutrient adequacy, as well as the existence and magnitude of health benefits, of this practice. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects on child health, growth, and development, and on maternal health, of exclusive breastfeeding for six months versus exclusive breastfeeding for three to four months with mixed breastfeeding (introduction of complementary liquid or solid foods with continued breastfeeding) thereafter through six months. SEARCH METHODS: We searched The Cochrane Library (2011, Issue 6), MEDLINE (1 January 2007 to 14 June 2011), EMBASE (1 January 2007 to 14 June 2011), CINAHL (1 January 2007 to 14 June 2011), BIOSIS (1 January 2007 to 14 June 2011), African Index Medicus (searched 15 June 2011), Index Medicus for the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (IMEMR) (searched 15 June 2011), LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences) (searched 15 June 2011). We also contacted experts in the field.The search for the first version of the review in 2000 yielded a total of 2668 unique citations. Contacts with experts in the field yielded additional published and unpublished studies. The updated literature review in December 2006 yielded 835 additional unique citations. SELECTION CRITERIA: We selected all internally-controlled clinical trials and observational studies comparing child or maternal health outcomes with exclusive breastfeeding for six or more months versus exclusive breastfeeding for at least three to four months with continued mixed breastfeeding until at least six months. Studies were stratified according to study design (controlled trials versus observational studies), provenance (developing versus developed countries), and timing of compared feeding groups (three to seven months versus later). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We independently assessed study quality and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 23 independent studies meeting the selection criteria: 11 from developing countries (two of which were controlled trials in Honduras) and 12 from developed countries (all observational studies). Definitions of exclusive breastfeeding varied considerably across studies. Neither the trials nor the observational studies suggest that infants who continue to be exclusively breastfed for six months show deficits in weight or length gain, although larger sample sizes would be required to rule out modest differences in risk of undernutrition. In developing-country settings where newborn iron stores may be suboptimal, the evidence suggests that exclusive breastfeeding without iron supplementation through six months may compromise hematologic status. Based on the Belarusian study, six months of exclusive breastfeeding confers no benefit (versus three months of exclusive breastfeeding followed by continued partial breastfeeding through six months) on height, weight, body mass index, dental caries, cognitive ability, or behaviour at 6.5 years of age. Based on studies from Belarus, Iran, and Nigeria, however, infants who continue exclusive breastfeeding for six months or more appear to have a significantly reduced risk of gastrointestinal and (in the Iranian and Nigerian studies) respiratory infection. No significant reduction in risk of atopic eczema, asthma, or other atopic outcomes has been demonstrated in studies from Finland, Australia, and Belarus. Data from the two Honduran trials and from observational studies from Bangladesh and Senegal suggest that exclusive breastfeeding through six months is associated with delayed resumption of menses and, in the Honduran trials, more rapid postpartum weight loss in the mother. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Infants who are exclusively breastfed for six months experience less morbidity from gastrointestinal infection than those who are partially breastfed as of three or four months, and no deficits have been demonstrated in growth among infants from either developing or developed countries who are exclusively breastfed for six months or longer. Moreover, the mothers of such infants have more prolonged lactational amenorrhea. Although infants should still be managed individually so that insufficient growth or other adverse outcomes are not ignored and appropriate interventions are provided, the available evidence demonstrates no apparent risks in recommending, as a general policy, exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life in both developing and developed-country settings.

Claire Wainwright, J.S. Elborn, Bonnie W. Ramsey, Gautham Marigowda et al.

BACKGROUND: Combination treatment with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators tezacaftor (VX-661) and ivacaftor (VX-770) was designed to target the underlying cause of disease in patients with cystic fibrosis. METHODS: through week 24 (calculated as a percentage) was a key secondary end point. RESULTS: in favor of tezacaftor-ivacaftor over placebo were 4.0 percentage points and 6.8%, respectively (P<0.001 for both comparisons). The rate of pulmonary exacerbation was 35% lower in the tezacaftor-ivacaftor group than in the placebo group (P=0.005). The incidence of adverse events was similar in the two groups. Most adverse events were of mild severity (in 41.8% of patients overall) or moderate severity (in 40.9% overall), and serious adverse events were less frequent with tezacaftor-ivacaftor (12.4%) than with placebo (18.2%). A total of 2.9% of patients discontinued the assigned regimen owing to adverse events. Fewer patients in the tezacaftor-ivacaftor group than in the placebo group had respiratory adverse events, none of which led to discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of tezacaftor and ivacaftor was efficacious and safe in patients 12 years of age or older who had cystic fibrosis and were homozygous for the CFTR Phe508del mutation. (Funded by Vertex Pharmaceuticals; EVOLVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02347657 .).